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Alarming surge: 464 million teens to face obesity crisis by 2030, study warns
May 21, 2025
19:43
The health of adolescents worldwide has reached a critical tipping point, with more than 46 crore (464 million) adolescents projected to be overweight or obese by 2030, according to a comprehensive analysis published by the Lancet Commission on Wednesday.
This alarming projection—representing 143 million more cases than in 2015—underscores significant shortcomings in global efforts to combat adolescent obesity, particularly in high-income countries across Latin America and the Middle East, where one-third of adolescents are expected to be overweight within five years.
The analysis, drawing on data from the 2021 Global Burden of Disease study, reveals a troubling parallel crisis in adolescent mental health. By 2030, mental disorders or suicide will account for 4.2 crore years of healthy life lost—2 million more than in 2015.
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“The health and well-being of adolescents worldwide is at a tipping point, with mixed progress observed over the past three decades,” said Commission co-chair, Professor Sarah Baird, from George Washington University in the US.
“While tobacco and alcohol use has declined and participation in secondary and tertiary education has increased, overweight and obesity have risen by up to eight-fold in some countries in Africa and Asia over the past three decades, and there is a growing burden of poor adolescent mental health globally,” she added.
Despite some progress in adolescent health over recent decades, the Commission projects that more than 1 billion young people will still be living in “multi-burden countries” by 2030. These regions face compounding challenges of HIV/AIDS, early pregnancy, unsafe sex, depression, poor nutrition, and preventable injuries that collectively threaten adolescent health and well-being.
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The Commission identified several significant emerging threats to adolescent health, with climate change and increasing digitalization posing particular concerns.
Today’s adolescents represent the first generation who will experience their entire lives with average annual global temperatures consistently 0.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels. By 2100, approximately 1.9 billion adolescents will inhabit a world expected to warm to around 2.8 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial times.
This warming trajectory brings catastrophic health risks, including heat-related illnesses, reduced food and water quality and availability, and increasing mental health conditions related to climate events.
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With projections indicating continued health challenges for adolescents globally, Professor Baird emphasized the critical importance of taking immediate action. She urged for “investing in the health and well-being of young people” as essential to safeguarding our “collective future.”
Without sufficient political will, policy initiatives, and financial investments, the Commission warns that the global adolescent population will continue facing multiple, preventable health burdens that compromise their future potential and well-being.
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